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As the UK Government lifted the vast majority of remaining COVID-19 restrictions last month, there has been widespread criticism for the approach, given the emergence of the highly-transmissible delta variant, and the subsequent sharp rise in cases.
The government’s argument is that any potential ‘third wave’ during summer months would be less impactful than an autumn / winter wave compounded by seasonal flu. Modeling a summer wave, experts estimate 100 – 200 fatalities per day, of which half are likely to be fully vaccinated.
This scenario would see between 1000 and 2000 hospital admissions per day during the summer months, but would limit respiratory infection hospital admissions to around 1000 per day during the autumn / winter months, compared to around 4000 admissions per day during the same period in 2020.
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